Low cardiorespiratory fitness and coronary artery calcification: Complementary cardiovascular risk predictors in asymptomatic type 2 diabetics

•Low fitness was an independent predictor of cardiovascular risk in asymptomatic diabetics.•Fitness provided prognostic information beyond risk models and CT coronary calcium.•Low fitness may identify asymptomatic diabetics at high risk despite low coronary calcium score.

BackgroundDespite its well-established prognostic value, cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) is not incorporated routinely in risk assessment tools. Whether low CRF provides additional predictive information in asymptomatic type 2 diabetics beyond conventional risk scores and coronary artery calcification (CAC) is unclear.MethodsWe studied 600 type 2 diabetics aged 55-74 years without known coronary heart disease. CRF was quantified in metabolic equivalents (METs) by maximal treadmill testing and categorized as tertiles of percent predicted METs (ppMETs) achieved. CAC was calculated by non-enhanced computed tomography scans. The individual and joint association of both measures with an outcome event of all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction or stroke, was determined over a mean follow-up period of 80 ± 16 months.ResultsThere were 72 (12%) events during follow-up. Low CRF was independently associated with event risk after adjustment for traditional risk factors and CAC (HR 2.25, 95% CI 1.41-3.57, p = 0.001). CRF (unfit/fit) allowed further outcome discrimination both amongst diabetics with low CAC scores (9.5% versus 2.0% event rate), and amongst diabetics with high CAC scores (23.5% versus 12.4% event rate), p < 0.001. The addition of CRF to a model comprising UKPDS and CAC scores improved the area under the curve for event prediction from 0.66 to 0.71, p = 0.03, with a positive continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI) of 0.451, p = 0.002.ConclusionsCRF, quantified by ppMETs, provided independent prognostic information which was additive to CAC. Low CRF may identify asymptomatic diabetic subjects at higher risk for all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction or stroke, despite low CAC.