Reasons why patients suffering from chronic heart failure at very high risk for death survive

•An accurate prognostic stratification is essential for clinical management of CHF patients.•We selected and characterized the subgroup of CHF patients at very high risk for death.•The reasons why these patients survive are a satisfactory renal function and body mass index.

BackgroundAn accurate prognostic stratification is essential for optimizing the clinical management and treatment decision-making of patients with chronic heart failure (HF). Among the best available models, we used the Cardiac and Comorbid Conditions HF (3C-HF) Score, to predict all-cause mortality in patients with CHF. Methods: we selected and characterized the subgroup of patients at very high risk with the worst mid-term prognosis belonging to the highest decile of 3C-HF score with the aim to assess predictors of survival in subjects with an expected probability of 1-year mortality near to 45%.Methods and resultsWe recruited 1777 consecutive chronic HF patients at 3 Italian Cardiology Units. Median age was 76 ± 10 years, 43% were female, and 32% had preserved ejection fraction. Subjects belonging to the highest decile of 3C-HF score were 246 (13.8% of total population). During a median follow-up of 21 [12-40] months, 110 of these patients (45%) survived and 136 (55%) died. The variables that contributed to survival prediction emerged by Cox regression multivariate analysis were the lower degree of renal dysfunction and higher body mass index.ConclusionsThe prognostic stratification of chronic HF patients allows in daily practice to select patients at different risk for death and identify prognosticators of survival in outliers at very high risk of death. The reasons why these patients outlive the matching part of subjects who expectedly die are related to the maintenance of a satisfactory renal function and body mass index.