Personality and social support as predictors of first and recurrent episodes of depression

•Only neuroticism seems to predict depression at two year follow up.•None of the other dimensions of the five factor model predict depression.•Neither structural nor perceived aspects of social support predict depression.•We found no difference in predicting onset or recurrence.

BackgroundDepression is a prevalent psychiatric disorder with high personal and public health consequences, partly due to a high risk of recurrence. This longitudinal study examines personality traits, structural and subjective social support dimensions as predictors of first and recurrent episodes of depression in initially non-depressed subjects.MethodsData were obtained from the Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety (NESDA). 1085 respondents without a current depression or anxiety diagnosis were included. 437 respondents had a prior history of depression, 648 did not. Personality dimensions were measured with the NEO-FFI, network size, partner-status, negative and positive emotional support were measured with the Close Person Questionnaire. Logistic regression analyses (unadjusted and adjusted for clinical variables and sociodemographic variables) examined whether these psychosocial variables predict a new episode of depression at two year follow up and whether this differed among persons with or without a history of depression.ResultsIn the unadjusted analyses high extraversion (OR:.93, 95% CI (.91-.96), P<.001), agreeableness (OR:.94, 95% CI (.90-.97), P<.001), conscientiousness (OR:.93, 95% CI (.90-.96), P<.001) and a larger network size (OR:.76, 95% CI (.64-.90), P=.001) significantly reduced the risk of a new episode of depression. Only neuroticism predicted a new episode of depression in both the unadjusted (OR:1.13, 95% CI (1.10-1.15), P<.001) and adjusted analyses (OR:1.06, 95% CI (1.03-1.10), P<.001). None of the predictors predicted first or recurrent episodes of depression differently.Limitationswe used a relatively short follow up period and broad personality dimensions.ConclusionsNeuroticism seems to predict both first and recurrent episodes of depression and may be suitable for screening for preventive interventions.