Land use and climate change effects on soil erosion in a semi-arid mountainous watershed (High Atlas, Morocco)

Simulations of the ARPEGE meteorological model were used for the 1960-1990 and 2070-2100 periods. The changes between these two periods were downscaled using three different methods, decreasing annual precipitations by 10-14%, although with more rainfall in summer and fall. Climate change alone increased sediment yield by 4.7-10.1%. However, simulations showed that land use changes might potentially induce much larger changes in erosion (up to 250%), approximately proportional to the evolution of the extension of badlands.