Atmospheric emission inventory of hazardous air pollutants from China's cement plants: Temporal trends, spatial variation characteristics and scenario projections

•We develop a comprehensive emission inventory of HAPs from China's cement industry.•Dynamic EFs of shaft, new suspension pre-heater and other rotary kilns are proposed.•We use transformed normal distribution function to reflect historical EFs variation.•Future trends of HAPs emission till 2050 are predicted with three scenario analysis.•HAPs emissions from 2961 plants in 2012 are allocated into 15 km × 15  km gridded cells.

sA multiple-year comprehensive emission inventory of typical hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) from China's cement industry for the period 1980-2012, has been established by using technology-based dynamic emission factors and detailed annual plant-specific cement production from different types of kilns. Our results show that the total emissions of various HAPs (SO2, NOX, CO, PM, Hg, Cd, Cr, Pb, Zn, As, Ni and Cu) have rapidly increased by about 1-21 times at an annual average growth rate of 1-10% over the past three decades. Remarkably uneven spatial allocation features of these pollutants among provinces are observed. HAPs emissions are primarily concentrated in the eastern and coastal provinces due to the concentration of cement plants and their huge volume of coal consumption. We predict the future emission trends of HAPs through 2050 based on industry construction and policy guidance, and our scenario analysis indicates that HAPs emissions will drop substantially because of the combined effects of cement production yields reduction and the increasing application rate of various air pollution control devices. The study suggests that highlighted attention should be paid to this energy-intensive industry to ensure stricter emission standards are implemented for these HAPs emissions in the future.

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