Association of Taiwan's October rainfall patterns with large-scale oceanic and atmospheric phenomena

The variability of the amount of October rainfall in Taiwan is the highest among all seasons. The October rainfall in Taiwan is attributable to interactions between the northeasterly monsoon and typhoons and their interaction with Taiwan's Central Mountain Range. This study applied long-term gridded rainfall data for defining the major rainfall pattern for October in Taiwan. The empirical orthogonal function Model 1 (80%) of the October rainfall and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index exhibited a significant out-of-phase coherence in a 2-4 year period band. This is because an easterly flow on the northern edge of an anomalous low-level cyclonic circulation over the South China Sea during a La Niña developing stage increased the occurrence of an autumn cold front and enhanced the northeasterly monsoon toward northern Taiwan. In addition, a southerly flow on the eastern edge of the anomalous cyclone increased the moisture transport from the tropical Pacific toward Taiwan. The warmer sea surface temperature in the South China Sea, Kuroshio, and the subtropical western Pacific, which may have been induced by an ENSO warm phase peak in the preceding winter, promoted the formation of the anomalous low-level cyclonic circulation.