Sea-level rise in the Mediterranean Sea by 2050: Roles of terrestrial ice melt, steric effects and glacial isostatic adjustment

•Future regional scenarios for sea-level rise in the Mediterranean Sea are obtained by 2040-2050.•The scenarios combine terrestrial ice melt, steric and GIA effects on sea-level rise.•Minimum/minimum values of basin-averaged sea-level rise are 9.8/25.6 cm by 2040-2050.•Terrestrial ice melt is expected to dominate over the steric and the GIA components.

To assess the regional pattern of future low-frequency sea-level variations in the Mediterranean Sea, we combine the terrestrial ice melt, the glacio-isostatic and the steric sea-level components. The first is obtained from global scenarios for the future mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets, glaciers and ice caps. The second is based on modeling, using different assumptions about the Earth's rheology and the chronology of deglaciation since the Last Glacial Maximum. The third is obtained from published simulations based on regional atmosphere-ocean coupled models. From a minimum and a maximum scenario by 2040-2050, we find that the total, basin averaged sea-level rise will be 9.8 and 25.6 cm. The terrestrial ice melt component will exceed the steric contribution, which however will show the strongest regional imprint. Glacial isostatic adjustment will have comparatively minor effects. According to our estimates, at the Mediterranean Sea tide gauges, the rate of sea-level change will increase, by 2050, by a factor of ~ 1-6 relative to the observed long-term rates.