Environmental consequences of a power plant shut-down: A three-dimensional water quality model of Dublin Bay

•A hydro-environmental model investigated the consequences of closing a power plant.•Model simulated water quality for three scenarios before and after closing the plant.•Dilution scenario gave better water quality results than direct discharges scenario.•Direct discharges scenario showed an increased stratification of the estuary waters.

A hydro-environmental model is used to investigate the effect of cessation of thermal discharges from a power plant on the bathing water quality of Dublin Bay. Before closing down, cooling water from the plant was mixed with sewage effluent prior to its discharge, creating a warmer, less-saline buoyant pollutant plume that adversely affects the water quality of Dublin Bay. The model, calibrated to data from the period prior to the power-plant shut-down (Scenario1), assessed the water quality following its shut-down under two scenarios; (i) Scenario2: continued abstraction of water to dilute sewage effluents before discharge, and (ii) Scnenario3: sewage effluents are discharged directly into the Estuary. Comparison between scenarios was based on distribution of Escherichia coli (E. coli), a main bathing quality indicator. Scenarios1 and 2, showed almost similar E. coli distribution patterns while Scenario3 displayed significantly higher E. coli concentrations due to the increased stratification caused by the lack of prior dilution.