Forecasting the peak anomalies of dominant intrinsic modes of Indian Ocean Dipole

► To identify and forecast the strength of dominant modes of IOD events is highly desirable. ► Daily time series of dipole mode index (DMI) is derived from remotely sensed SST observations. ► Observed DMI time series is decomposed into its intrinsic modes using the EMD technique. ► For dominant IOD modes, a forecasting rule is given to predict the peak SST anomalies (strength). ► An extended-range forecast model is proposed using the growth rate of SST anomalies.