Connecting Atlantic temperature variability and biological cycling in two earth system models

•Both diatom biomass and AMO index can be consequences of changes in overturning.•Physical–biological connections are spatially heterogeneous and model-dependent.•Nutrient supply changes drive changes off West Greenland and the Bay of Biscay.•Light supply associated with ice meltback drives changes of the Labrador Coast.•Results may explain interdecadal changes in Greenland cod stocks.

Connections between the interdecadal variability in North Atlantic temperatures and biological cycling have been widely hypothesized. However, it is unclear whether such connections are due to small changes in basin-averaged temperatures indicated by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) Index, or whether both biological cycling and the AMO index are causally linked to changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). We examine interdecadal variability in the annual and month-by-month diatom biomass in two Earth System Models with the same formulations of atmospheric, land, sea ice and ocean biogeochemical dynamics but different formulations of ocean physics and thus different AMOC structures and variability. In the isopycnal-layered ESM2G, strong interdecadal changes in surface salinity associated with changes in AMOC produce spatially heterogeneous variability in convection, nutrient supply and thus diatom biomass. These changes also produce changes in ice cover, shortwave absorption and temperature and hence the AMO Index. Off West Greenland, these changes are consistent with observed changes in fisheries and support climate as a causal driver. In the level-coordinate ESM2M, nutrient supply is much higher and interdecadal changes in diatom biomass are much smaller in amplitude and not strongly linked to the AMO index.