Modeling the spawning strategies and larval survival of the Brazilian sardine (Sardinella brasiliensis)

•Brazilian sardine can explore suitable places for spawning.•Cape Frio upwelling plays an important role in the modulation of the spawning areas.•The central-southern portion of SBB is the most suitable for larvae development.•Brazilian sardine confinement in SBB is result of the surface circulation pattern.

An Individual Based Model (IBM), coupled with a hydrodynamic model (ROMS), was used to investigate the spawning strategies and larval survival of the Brazilian Sardine in the South Brazil Bight (SBB). ROMS solutions were compared with satellite and field data to assess their representation of the physical environment. Two spawning experiments were performed for the summer along six years, coincident with ichthyoplankton survey cruises. In the first one, eggs were released in spawning habitats inferred from a spatial model. The second experiment simulated a random spawning to test the null hypothesis that there are no preferred spawning sites. Releasing eggs in the predefined spawning habitats increases larval survival, suggesting that the central-southern part of the SBB is more suitable for larvae development because of its thermodynamic characteristics. The Brazilian sardine is also capable of exploring suitable areas for spawning, according to the interannual variability of the SBB. The influence of water temperature, the presence of Cape Frio upwelling, and surface circulation on the spawning process was tested. The Cape Frio upwelling plays an important role in the modulation of Brazilian sardine spawning zones over SBB because of its lower than average water temperature. This has a direct influence on larval survival and on the interannual variability of the Brazilian sardine spawning process. The hydrodynamic condition is crucial in determining the central-southern part of SBB as the most suitable place for spawning because it enhances simulated coastal retention of larvae.