A service-oriented architecture for ensemble flood forecast from numerical weather prediction

•Development of the framework of SOA for ensemble flood forecast from NWP.•Development of a method to automatically download and update the NWP.•Realization of implementing multiple scenarios of flood forecast at the same time.•Validation of the new method through simulating flood flow at two river basins.

SummaryFloods in mountainous river basins are generally highly destructive, usually causing enormous losses of lives and property. It is important and necessary to develop an effective flood forecast method to prevent people from suffering flood disasters. This paper proposed a general framework for a service-oriented architecture (SOA) for ensemble flood forecast based on numerical weather prediction (NWP), taking advantage of state-of-the-art technologies, e.g., high-accuracy NWP, high-capacity cloud computing, and an interactive web service. With the predicted rainfall data derived from the NWP, which are automatically downloaded, hydrological models will be driven to run on the cloud. Judging from the simulation results and flood control requirements offered by users, warning information about possible floods will be generated for potential sufferers and then sent to them as soon as possible if needed. Moreover, by using web service in a social network, users can also acquire such information on the clients and make decisions about whether to prepare for possible floods. Along with the real-time updates of the NWP, simulation results will be refreshed in a timely manner, and the latest warning information will always be available to users. From the sample demonstrations, it is concluded that the SOA is a feasible way to develop an effective ensemble flood forecast method. After being put into practice, it would be valuable for preventing or reducing the losses caused by floods in mountainous river basins.