Seasonal variation in phosphorus concentration-discharge hysteresis inferred from high-frequency in situ monitoring

•Hourly phosphorus and turbidity data show hysteresis patterns with stream discharge.•Clockwise and anti-clockwise events are both common and consistent for determinands.•Discharge volume and air temperature are the main controls of hysteresis direction.•Fuzzy logic model shows high accuracy in predicting the hysteresis direction.•There is a clear seasonal transition in phosphorus transport patterns.

SummaryHigh-resolution in situ total phosphorus (TP), total reactive phosphorus (TRP) and turbidity (TURB) time series are presented for a groundwater-dominated agricultural catchment. Meta-analysis of concentration-discharge (c-q) intra-storm signatures for 61 storm events revealed dominant hysteretic patterns with similar frequency of anti-clockwise and clockwise responses; different determinands (TP, TRP, TURB) behaved similarly. We found that the c-q loop direction is controlled by seasonally variable flow discharge and temperature whereas the magnitude is controlled by antecedent rainfall. Anti-clockwise storm events showed lower flow discharge and higher temperature compared to clockwise events. Hydrological controls were more important for clockwise events and TP and TURB responses, whereas in-stream biogeochemical controls were important for anti-clockwise storm events and TRP responses. Based on the best predictors of the direction of the hysteresis loops, we calibrated and validated a simple fuzzy logic inference model (FIS) to determine likely direction of the c-q responses. We show that seasonal and inter-storm succession in clockwise and anti-clockwise responses corroborates the transition in P transport from a chemostatic to an episodic regime. Our work delivers new insights for the evidence base on the complexity of phosphorus dynamics. We show the critical value of high-frequency in situ observations in advancing understanding of freshwater biogeochemical processes.