Modeling earthen dikes using real-time sensor data

•Analysis of sensitivity of tide-induced pressure fluctuations in the dike to the variation of diffusivity.•Comparison of 1D analytical model with 2D numerical model.•Use of live sensor data for heterogeneous dike diffusivities calibration.•Generic procedure for automatic diffusivities calibration.

SummaryThe paper describes the concept and implementation details of integrating a finite element module for dike stability analysis “Virtual Dike” into an early warning system for flood protection. The module operates in real-time mode and includes fluid and structural sub-models for simulation of porous flow through the dike and for dike stability analysis. Real-time measurements obtained from pore pressure sensors are fed into the simulation module, to be compared with simulated pore pressure dynamics. Implementation of the module has been performed for a real-world test case, an earthen levee protecting a sea-port in Groningen, The Netherlands. Sensitivity analysis and calibration of diffusivities have been performed based on pore pressure sensor data during tidal fluctuations. An algorithm for automatic diffusivities calibration for a heterogeneous dike is proposed and studied. Analytical solutions describing tidal propagation in a one-dimensional saturated aquifer are employed in the algorithm to generate initial estimates of diffusivities.