Development of a diagnosis index of tropical cyclones affecting the Korean Peninsula

This study has developed the index for diagnosis on possibility that tropical cyclones (TCs) affect Korean Peninsula. This index is closely related to the strength of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH), which is calculated as a difference in meridional wind between at the highest correlation area (around Korean Peninsula) and at the lowest correlation area (sea southeast of Japan) through a correlation analysis between TC frequency that affects Korean Peninsula and 500 hPa meridional wind. In low frequency years that selected from Korea affecting TC index, anomalous northeasterly is strengthened from Korea to the South China Sea because the center of anomalous anticyclonic circulation is located to northwest of Korean Peninsula. Thus, TCs tend to move westward from the sea east of the Philippines to the mainland China. On the other hand, in high frequency years, anomalous southwesterly serves as steering flow that more TCs move toward Korean Peninsula because the center of anomalous anticyclonic circulation is located to sea east of Japan. Consequently, this study suggests that if this index is calculated using real time 500 hPa meridional winds that forecasted by dynamic models during the movement of TCs, the possibility that TCs approach Korean Peninsula can be diagnosed in real time.