Forecasting the evolution of the sea ice in the Liaodong Bay using meteorological data

In the present study, a novel empirical model has been developed with an aim to predict the sea ice area and its spatial distribution in the Liaodong Bay based on observed meteorological data of air temperature and wind speeds. The model indicates that the sea ice including the area and spatial distribution in the Liaodong Bay is strongly sensitive to the cumulative freezing degree days (CFDD), seaward winds and air temperature. The estimated sea ice area and spatial distribution are compared to the remotely-sensed data and the comparisons suggest that the model is able to account for 87% variability of the sea ice area. The sensitivity of the model results to the air temperature and wind speed is investigated as well.