Tectonic stress and renewed uplift at Campi Flegrei caldera, southern Italy: New insights from caldera drilling

•We present the first borehole measurement of stress field at Campi Flegrei caldera.•Progressive increase of horizontal stress during episodes of unrest.•Approaching conditions that are more favourable to a volcanic eruption.•Basis for improved forecasts of eruptions at large calderas elsewhere.

Deep drilling is a key tool for the investigation of active volcanoes in the modern Earth Sciences, as this provides the only means to obtain direct information on processes that occur at depth. Data acquired from drilling projects are fundamental to our understanding of volcano dynamics, and for mitigation of the hazards they pose for millions of people who live close to active volcanoes. We present here the first borehole measurement of the stress field in the crust of Campi Flegrei (southern Italy), a large active caldera, and one of the highest risk volcanoes worldwide. Measurements were performed to depths of ∼500 m during a pilot study for the Campi Flegrei Deep Drilling Project. These data indicate an extensional stress field, with a minimum horizontal stress of ca. 75% to 80% of the maximum horizontal stress, which is approximately equal to the vertical stress. The deviation from lithostatic conditions is consistent with a progressive increase in applied horizontal stress during episodes of unrest, since at least 1969. As the stress field is evolving with time, the outcome of renewed unrest cannot be assessed by analogy with previous episodes. Interpretations of future unrest must therefore accommodate the possibility that Campi Flegrei is approaching conditions that are more favourable to a volcanic eruption than has previously been the case. Such long-term accumulation of stress is not expected to be unique to Campi Flegrei, and so might provide a basis for improved forecasts of eruptions at large calderas elsewhere.