Lava flow hazards-An impending threat at Miyakejima volcano, Japan

The majority of the historic eruptions recorded at Miyakejima volcano were fissure eruptions that occurred on the flanks of the volcano. During the last 1100 years, 17 fissure eruptions have been reported with a mean interval of about 76-78 years. In the last century, the mean interval between fissure eruptions decreased to 21-22 years, increasing significantly the threat of lava flow inundations to people and property. Here we quantify the lava flow hazards posed by effusive eruptions in Miyakejima by combining field data, numerical simulations and probability analysis. Our analysis is the first to assess both the spatiotemporal probability of vent opening, which highlights the areas most likely to host a new eruption, and the lava flow hazard, which shows the probabilities of lava-flow inundation in the next 50 years. Future eruptive vents are expected in the vicinity of the Hatchodaira caldera, radiating from the summit of the volcano toward the costs. Areas more likely to be threatened by lava flows are Ako and Kamitsuki villages, as well as Miike port and Miyakejima airport. Thus, our results can be useful for risk evaluation, investment decisions, and emergency response preparation.