The evolution of shale gas development and energy security in Poland: Presenting a hierarchical choice of priorities

This paper uses the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to select the alternative consistent with the goal of achieving energy security in Poland. The study considers three possible alternatives: the extraction of shale gas from domestic sources (A), diversification of gas supply (B), and maintaining the status quo (C). Data for comparisons were obtained from interviews with energy sector experts after rejecting responses that did not meet consistency criteria. The alternative, which satisfies the largest number of the models' criteria and subcriteria is the alternative supporting shale gas mining (model A), while the second preferred alternative is the diversification of gas supply sources (model B). The least favorable is alternative C, maintaining the status quo. The study is the first to assess the energy security alternatives in Poland by obtaining a synthetic score reflecting multiple qualitative factors.