Modelling energy transitions for climate targets under landscape and actor inertia

•We present a quantitative socio-technical energy transitions model inspired by the Multi-Level Perspective.•BLUE is a stochastic system dynamic model that features multiple actors with detailed behavioural parameters.•The feasibility of UK climate targets is explored under landscape and actor inertia.•The results show that actor inertia may significantly increase the difficulty of achieving climate targets.•The results also show the importance of taking socio-technical perspectives on energy transitions.

The speed at which established socioeconomic and technological systems can be adapted to alternatives that are compatible with a climate stabilised, 2 °C world remains unknown. Quantitative models used for assessing this challenge typically make a number of arguably optimistic assumptions regarding human behaviour and decision making. This often restricts the insights produced to futures approximating a so-called first-best policy landscape. However, empirical studies of socio-technical change have shown that technological diffusion is often influenced by actors and institutions interacting under less ideal, second-best conditions. This paper quantifies these factors in a formal energy model as landscape and actor inertia and employs them for the first time in BLUE, a dynamic stochastic socio-technical simulation of technology diffusion, energy and emissions inspired by the multi-level perspective. Using the UK energy system as an example, the results illustrate how socio-technical inertia may significantly blunt future efforts to achieve climate targets.