Energy security in a decarbonised transport sector: A scenario based analysis of Sweden's transport strategies

•External factors influence if and how climate mitigation affects energy security.•Strategies that reduce the use of energy are fairly robust.•Strategies that rely on development of new energy supply chains are sensitive.•Combining strategies provides synergies and hedge uncertainty.

Previous research has shown that it is possible to decarbonise Sweden's road transport sector. This study develops a scenario based method and analyses the influence of external factors on energy security, focusing on passenger and freight transport. It does so by analysing the vulnerabilities and capabilities of five different climate mitigation strategies, investigating previous security scenarios and identifying uncertain drivers. These are used to develop four consistent exogenous scenarios using cross impact balance analysis. The vulnerabilities and capabilities of the five different strategies are then compared with the challenges faced in the scenarios and the robustness and adaptive capacity of the resulting systems is analysed.The results shows that strategies which reduce the use of energy (increase efficiency or conservation) are robust, but that demand restrictions are perceived as undesirable by some interest groups. Biofuels perform poorly if too many other countries increase their use of biofuel, whereas electrification performs best when many other countries implement this technology. The strategies are not mutually exclusive and simultaneous implementation of some provides synergies for national energy security. Some directions for further research are suggested, such as framing energy security as subjective, i.e. a result of material and contextual factors that co-evolve.