Distribution of high-yield and high-yield-stability zones for maize yield potential in the main growing regions in China

Understanding the distribution of zones possessing both high yield and high yield stability (high-stable zones) for maize (Zea mays L.) yield potential is essential for optimized distribution and improvement of maize production with limited resources. In this study, the well-calibrated and validated Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM-Maize) model with observed phenology and yield of widely planted hybrids, was applied to simulate three levels of yield potentials [radiation-temperature yield potential (Yp), climatic yield potential (Ypw) and soil-climatic yield potential (Ypws)] at 331 meteorology stations in the three main growing regions in China [the North China spring maize region (NCS), the Huanghuaihai summer maize region (HS) and the Southwest China mountain maize region (SCM)] during 1981-2010. According to the comprehensive analysis of both average and CVs for the three levels of yield potential, the high-stable zone for Yp was located in the southeastern and central portions of NCS, while both high-stable zones for Ypw and Ypws were located in eastern NCS, accounting for 16.4% and 20.0% of the area, respectively. In HS, the high-stable zone for Yp was located in the northern portions and accounted for 12.8% of the entire area in this region, while the percentages of high-stable zones for Ypw and Ypws increased to 30.4% and 35.0%, respectively, and were mainly located in the southern and eastern portions. In SCM, the high-stable zone for Yp was located in the southwestern portions and occupied 24.5% of the areas; the high-stable zones for Ypw and Ypws were found in eastern portions and accounted for 17.1% and 20.1% of the land area in this region, respectively. Yield stability was more negatively affected by rain in NCS and HS (38.9% and 34.3%, respectively) than in SCM (8.2%), while yield level was reduced by rain in more areas in SCM (19.1%). Moreover, the effects of soil on yield level and stability were limited in all the three regions.