Recent trends in Inner Asian forest dynamics to temperature and precipitation indicate high sensitivity to climate change

► How does climate variability and change limit ecosystem productivity in cool-arid environments? ► Long-term AVHRR-FPAR data show mixed greening trends driven by changes in precipitation. ► Dendrochronology confirms a strong tree growth sensitivity to spring and summer precipitation. ► Carbon cycle simulations for forest production indicate overwhelming precipitation limitation. ► Interactions from a wetter, warmer and high CO2 environment cause complex vegetation responses.