A simple algorithm for analyzing uncertainty of accident reconstruction results

In order to analyzing the uncertainty in accident reconstruction, based on the theory of extreme value and the convex model theory, the uncertainty analysis problem is turn to an extreme value problem. In order to calculate the range of the dependent variable, the extreme value in the definition domain and on the boundary of the definition domain are calculated independently, and then the upper and lower bound of the dependent variable can be given by these obtained extreme values. Based on such idea and through analyzing five numerical cases, a simple algorithm for calculating the range of an accident reconstruction result was given; appropriate results can be obtained through the proposed algorithm in these cases. Finally, a real world vehicle-motorcycle accident was given, the range of the reconstructed velocity of the vehicle was calculated by employing the Pc-Crash, the response surface methodology and the new proposed algorithm, the range was [66.1-67.3] km/h. This research will provide another choice for uncertainty analysis in accident reconstruction.