Vulnerability to decarbonization in hydrocarbon-intensive counties in the United States: A just transition to avoid post-industrial decay

Over the next several decades, the world will undergo an energy transition as it shifts away from coal and oil to less carbon intensive energy sources. This process will create economic winners and losers, but these winners and loser will not be limited to corporations and their investors. Instead, communities that have developed around coal, oil, and gas extraction and processing will be negatively impacted if this energy transition occurs. Here, we provide first-order estimates of the socioeconomic vulnerability to decarbonization among U.S. counties. There are a small number of U.S. counties that appear to be highly vulnerable to decarbonization, and this suggests that policymakers could take a spatially-targeted approach to mitigating the socioeconomic impacts, similar to the approach of the Appalachian Regional Commission. Such a targeted approach may allow for a Just Transition to a low carbon economy.