Use of fuzzy cognitive maps to study urban resilience and transformation

Transformative change for urban sustainability and resilience calls for the use of new governance approaches that take into account the complexity of urban systems and associated stakeholder knowledge and perceptions. This raises the need to explore the cognitive dimension in the management of urban resilience and transformation. The article presents a Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping approach to develop plausible policy scenarios that support the decarbonisation of the urban energy system of the city of Bilbao, Basque Country. Scenario results indicate that a combination of local institutional and social action may be most conducive for stimulating effective and sustainable transformation of Bilbao's urban energy system. We address the properties of the resulting cognitive network, with a focus on the role of the energy system's connectivity which is found to present conflicting potential for resilience and transformation.