Lead markets in 2nd generation biofuels for aviation: A comparison of Germany, Brazil and the USA

Biofuels are the first feasible option for greenhouse gas emission reduction in aviation. This paper uses the lead markets framework to consider potential advantages in process plant required to produce 2nd generation biofuels for aviation. Germany and Brazil both have the potential to develop a lead market. They are active in technology development and have a demand interest through a significant aircraft and airline industry. The USA has also been found to be a country with a very high lead market potential. Since the technology is at a demonstration stage, market information for the assessment of lead market advantages is not available. However, there are a range of indicators of firm activity and market potential that can be combined to make a general assessment. For this case, it is necessary for the lead market framework to be extended to consider international technology networks instead of a national lead market.