Developing storylines for urban climate governance by using Constellation Analysis - insights from a case study in Berlin, Germany

Urban populations are at large risk from climate change and particularly extreme heat events. While there are various studies about heat risks, including those based on modeling experiments examining hazards and vulnerability related to heat (exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity), methods to develop urban heat scenarios built upon in-depth knowledge on urban governance are missing. The aim of this paper is to create exploratory and anticipatory storylines for heat adaptation in urban planning using the method of Constellation Analysis. Focusing on the case of Berlin, Germany, the complex sets of urban governance measures that exist on different spatial levels are introduced. From the analyzed governance and planning processes three exploratory storylines for 2040/2050 are derived. Additionally, the paper presents an anticipatory storyline of a “heat adapted city”. The limitations and benefits of these perspectives and the need for quantitative and spatially explicit scenarios are discussed. Systematic approaches to identifying urban heat governance constellations and deriving respective storylines are of utmost importance for discussing possible urban development paths with different stakeholders.