Technical-economic potential of PV systems on Brazilian rooftops

Photovoltaic (PV) solar energy is a promising source of electricity generation, but still at a relatively high cost. Nevertheless, distributed photovoltaic generation does not compete for land use, as it is incorporated into existing buildings, and should be analyzed from the standpoint of the final consumer, who perceives electricity prices rather than electricity generation costs. This study evaluates the technical-economic potential for installing PV in the Brazilian residential sector. Socio-economic characteristics, such as household income, electric power consumption, availability of rooftops, load curve, capital cost and financing, were considered. Technical-economic simulation tools were integrated into a geographical information system ('GIS') to permit a spatial analysis. Results indicate technological feasibility for urban and rural areas of Brazilian municipalities. In 2014, about 1500 sites would be ready to install photovoltaic panels, and in 2016 this number would reach 68,000 homes. For the year 2026, about 29 million residential units would be prepared to have photovoltaic panels installed. Of these, 3% would be high-income residences, and 52% would be situated in the country's Southeast region. The implementation of this impressive potential will depend also on the development of PV services in the country.