Considering uncertainty in the optimal energy management of renewable micro-grids including storage devices

This paper proposes a new probabilistic framework based on 2m Point Estimate Method (2m PEM) to consider the uncertainties in the optimal energy management of the Micro Girds (MGs) including different renewable power sources like Photovoltaics (PVs), Wind Turbine (WT), Micro Turbine (MT), Fuel Cell (FC) as well as storage devices. The proposed probabilistic framework requires 2m runs of the deterministic framework to consider the uncertainty of m uncertain variables in the terms of the first three moments of the relevant probability density functions. Therefore, the uncertainty regarding the load demand forecasting error, grid bid changes and WT and PV output power variations are considered concurrently. Investigating the MG problem with uncertainty in a 24 h time interval with several equality and inequality constraints requires a powerful optimization technique which could escape from the local optima as well as premature convergence. Consequently, a novel self adaptive optimization algorithm based on θ-Particle Swarm Optimization (θ-PSO) algorithm is proposed to explore the total search space globally. The θ-PSO algorithm uses the phase angle vectors to update the velocity/position of particles such that faster and more stable convergence is achieved. In addition, the proposed self adaptive modification method consists of three sub-modification methods which will let the particles choosel the modification method which best fits their current situation. The feasibility and satisfying performance of the proposed method is tested on a typical grid-connected MG as the case study.