Adaptive decision-making for civil infrastructure systems and communities exposed to evolving risks

This paper investigates possible dynamic changes in the conditions of civil infrastructure systems/communities and their potential effects on life-cycle performance. A systematic adaptive decision process is proposed as a way to continually reevaluate the risks and provide more adaptive and flexible management actions to enhance infrastructure/community resilience under evolving conditions. Sequential Bayesian updating is utilized to reduce uncertainty and leverage the continuous accumulation of knowledge. Finally, the proposed adaptive decision methodology is illustrated with a benchmark problem based on a testbed residential community in Kathmandu, Nepal, to examine its feasibility and effectiveness in managing evolving risks. The results show that evolving exposure and vulnerability would increase future risks to the community and such risks could be effectively managed through adaptive decision-making.