Synthesis of wind tunnel and climatological data for estimating design wind effects: A copula based approach

Accurate estimation of design wind effects on tall buildings is critical to ensure adequate margin of safety against lateral wind loads with a reasonable cost. Design wind effects on tall buildings are estimated by combining aerodynamic data obtained from wind tunnel tests with the climatological or wind speed data of the construction site. Though it is widely agreed that the aerodynamic data obtained from wind tunnel tests is fairly reliable, the various approaches used to synthesize aerodynamic and climatological data are often argued to have shortcomings. For instance, the uncertainty in modeling the correlation effect between sectorial responses has always been a challenge in the sector-by-sector synthesis approach. This paper presents a new copula based approach for modeling this correlation effect between sectorial responses. In addition, the proposed approach is used to assess the uncertainties in assuming sectorial responses to be perfectly dependent or independent while using the sector-by-sector approach. Results of the study showed that a copula based approach can be used for accurate modeling of the correlation effect between sectorial responses. It was also noted that assuming sectorial responses to be perfectly dependent or independent could result in underestimation or overestimation of design wind effects respectively.