Indirect land use change for biofuels: Testing predictions and improving analytical methodologies

Current practices for estimating indirect land use change (iLUC) due to United States biofuel production rely on assumption-heavy, global economic modeling approaches. Prior iLUC studies have failed to compare their predictions to past global historical data. An empirical approach is used to detect evidence for iLUC that might be catalyzed by United States biofuel production through a “bottom-up”, data-driven, statistical approach. Results show that biofuel production in the United States from 2002 to 2007 is not significantly correlated with changes in croplands for corn (coarse grain) plus soybean in regions of the world which are corn (coarse grain) and soybean trading partners of the United States. The results may be interpreted in at least two different ways: 1) biofuel production in the United States through 2007 (the last date for which information is available) probably has not induced any indirect land use change, and 2) this empirical approach may not be sensitive enough to detect indirect land use change from the historical data. It seems clear that additional effort may be required to develop methodologies to observe indirect land use change from the historical data. Such efforts might reduce uncertainties in indirect land use change estimates or perhaps form the basis for better policies or standards for biofuels.

► We search for evidence for ILUC due to US biofuel from the historical data. ► No significant correlations are found between US biofuel production and cropland changes elsewhere. ► US biofuel through 2007 probably did not induce ILUC or. ► This empirical approach using historical data is not capable of detecting ILUC. ► More sophisticated methodologies to detect ILUC from empirical data are needed.