Effects of climate change on biomass production and substitution in north-central Sweden

In this study we estimate the effects of climate change on forest production in north-central Sweden, as well as the potential climate change mitigation feedback effects of the resulting increased carbon stock and forest product use. Our results show that an average regional temperature rise of 4 °C over the next 100 years may increase annual forest production by 33% and potential annual harvest by 32%, compared to a reference case without climate change. This increased biomass production, if used to substitute fossil fuels and energy-intensive materials, can result in a significant net carbon emission reduction. We find that carbon stock in forest biomass, forest soils, and wood products also increase, but this effect is less significant than biomass substitution. A total net reduction in carbon emissions of up to 104 Tg of carbon can occur over 100 years, depending on harvest level and reference fossil fuel.

► We model effects of climate change on Swedish forest production and substitution. ► Biomass production increases by up to 33% and annual harvest increases by up to 32%. ► Carbon stocks in living tree biomass, forest soil, and wood products all increase. ► Active forest management and use can significantly reduce future carbon emissions.