Direct and indirect influences on employed adults' travel in the UK: New insights from the National Travel Survey data 2002-2010

Recent years saw a continuing shift in labour force composition, e.g. greater participation of women and a prominent rise in part-time workers. There are as yet relatively few recent studies that examine systematically the influences on the travel of employed adults from such perspectives, particularly regarding possible transport disadvantages of the fastest growing segments of workers. A robust analysis requires systematic data on a wide range of explanatory variables and multiple travel outcomes including accessibility, mobility and trip frequency for different trip purposes. The UK NTS data does meet the majority of this demanding data requirement, but its full use has so far been hampered by methodological difficulties. To overcome complex endogeneity problems, we develop novel, integrated structural equation models (SEMs) to uncover the influences of latent land use characteristics, indirect influences on car ownership, interactions among trip purposes as well as residents' self-selection and spatial sorting. This general-purpose method provides a new, systematic decomposition of the influences on travel outcomes, where the effects of each variable can be examined in turn with robust error terms. The new insights underline two direct policy implications. First, it highlights the contributions of land use planning and urban design in restraining travel demand in the 2000s, and their increasing influence over the decade. Secondly, it shows that there may still be a large mobility disadvantage among the fastest growing segments of workers, particularly in dense urban areas. This research further investigates trend breaking influences before and after 2007 through grouped SEM models, as a test of the methodology for producing regular and timely updates regarding the main influences on personal travel from a system level.