Optimization of bioenergy yield from cultivated land in Denmark

A cost minimization model for supply of starch, oil, sugar, grassy and woody biomass for bioenergy in Denmark was developed using linear programming. The model includes biomass supply from annual crops on arable land, short rotation forestry (willow) and plantation forestry. Crop area distributions were simulated using cost data for year 2005. Five scenarios with different constraints, e.g. on food and feed supply and on nitrogen balance were considered focusing on: a) constraints as the year 2005, b) landscape aesthetics and biodiversity c) groundwater protection, d) maintaining current food and feed production, or e) on site carbon sequestration. In addition, two oil price levels were considered. The crop area distributions differed between scenarios and were affected by changing fossil oil prices up to index 300 (using 55$ per barrel in 2005 as index = 100). The bioenergy supply (district heating, electric power, biogas, RME or bioethanol) varied between 56 PJ in the “2005” scenario at oil index 100 and 158 PJ at oil index 300 in the groundwater scenario. Our simple model demonstrates the effect of prioritizing multiple uses of land resources for food, feed or bioenergy, while maintaining a low nitrogen load to the environment. In conclusion, even after drastic landuse changes the bioenergy supply as final energy will not exceed 184 PJ annually (including 26 PJ processed biowaste sources) by far lower than the annual domestic total energy consumption ranging between 800 and 850 PJ yr−1.