Geographical variations in fertility and transition to second and third birth in Britain

Individual level data from the British Household Panel Survey and methods of event history analysis are used to explore women's transitions to second and third order births in Britain in the early 21st century. Our findings indicate that individual reproductive life paths respond to a variety of social processes acting at various scales, and that these influences vary by birth order. Most interestingly, local fertility contexts influence transition to first birth but not transition to higher order births, which are mainly associated with individual characteristics of women and their partners. Dominant spacing effects, however, suggest that local contexts have an indirect impact on second and third births through age at the onset of childbearing. The study demonstrates the importance of considering social interaction theories, and their extension to scale-sensitive spatial contexts in which these interactions take place, when analysing geographical variations in fertility. Future research seeking to explain subnational fertility variations must recognize the importance of developing theoretical understandings to inform empirical work.