Potential recovery of industrial wood and energy wood raw material in different cutting and climate scenarios for Finland

The aim of this study was to estimate the simultaneous recovery of industrial wood and raw material for energy wood from cuttings in Finland during the next 50 years. Two cutting scenarios (maximum and sustainable cuttings) and two climate scenarios (current and changing climate) were analysed to determine their impacts on harvesting potential. The analysis was carried out using sample plot and tree data from the ninth National Forest Inventory and a management-oriented large-scale forestry model (MELA) into which the transfer functions based on physiological modelling were incorporated to describe the impacts of climate change. Depending on the climate scenario, the volume of potential recovery of industrial wood in the maximum cutting scenario during the period 2003–2013 varied from 103 to 105 million m3 a−1, while the amount of potential energy wood raw material was 35 Tg a−1. During the period 2043–2053, in the current climate scenario, the potential recovery of industrial wood was 64 million m3 a−1 and energy wood raw material 22 Tg a−1, and in the changing climate scenario, 85 million m3 a−1 and 29 Tg a−1, respectively. In the sustainable cutting scenario, depending on the climate scenario used, the potential recovery of industrial wood during the period 2003–2013 varied from 74 to 76 million m3 a−1, while the amount of potential energy wood was 25 Tg a−1. During the period 2043–2053, in the current climate scenario, the potential recovery of industrial wood was 80 million m3 a−1 and energy wood raw material 26 Tg a−1, and in the changing climate scenario, 88 million m3 a−1 and 29 Tg a−1, respectively.