Process design and probabilistic economic risk analysis of bio-diesel production

•A novel methodology for probabilistic economic risk analysis and its integration with process design and decision making.•Integration of uncertainty in the process and cost data as part of risk analysis.•Application of the proposed method to a biodiesel project.

Process design and economic risk analysis were performed for a biodiesel production plant having an annual production capacity of 45,000 tonne of biodiesel using inedible Jatropha oil as the biomass feedstock. Five major economic factors associated with the cost were computed and analyzed. These included total capital investment, fixed cost, variable cost, annual operating cost and total cost. Probabilistic cost estimation was performed to analyze the variability in the cost data. Among all other cost elements, raw material cost was found to be the most significant variable affecting the economic viability of biodiesel production system. Probabilistic risk estimation showed that, even using the published cost data, the estimated total risk was 50% uncertain. The study also showed that by incorporating environmental benefits of biodiesel burning, the benefit to risk ratio increased.