Predicting cycling accident risk in Brussels: A spatial case-control approach

Results suggest that a high risk is statistically associated with the presence of on-road tram tracks, bridges without cycling facility, complex intersections, proximity to shopping centres or garages, and busy van and truck traffic. Cycle facilities built at intersections and parked vehicles located next to separated cycle facilities are also associated with an increased risk, whereas contraflow cycling is associated with a reduced risk. The cycling accident risk is far from being negligible in points where there is actually no reported cycling accident but where they are yet expected to occur. Hence, mapping predicted accident risks provides planners and policy makers with a useful tool for accurately locating places with a high potential risk even before accidents actually happen. This also provides comprehensible information for orienting cyclists to the safest routes in Brussels.