Joint release rate estimation and measurement-by-measurement model correction for atmospheric radionuclide emission in nuclear accidents: An application to wind tunnel experiments

The release rate of atmospheric radionuclide emissions is a critical factor in the emergency response to nuclear accidents. However, there are unavoidable biases in radionuclide transport models, leading to inaccurate estimates. In this study, a method that simultaneously corrects these biases and estimates the release rate is developed. Our approach provides a more complete measurement-by-measurement correction of the biases with a coefficient matrix that considers both deterministic and stochastic deviations. This matrix and the release rate are jointly solved by the alternating minimization algorithm. The proposed method is generic because it does not rely on specific features of transport models or scenarios. It is validated against wind tunnel experiments that simulate accidental releases in a heterogonous and densely built nuclear power plant site. The sensitivities to the position, number, and quality of measurements and extendibility of the method are also investigated. The results demonstrate that this method effectively corrects the model biases, and therefore outperforms Tikhonov's method in both release rate estimation and model prediction. The proposed approach is robust to uncertainties and extendible with various center estimators, thus providing a flexible framework for robust source inversion in real accidents, even if large uncertainties exist in multiple factors.