Accident Precursor Probabilistic Method (APPM) for modeling and assessing risk of offshore drilling blowouts - A theoretical micro-scale application

The developed APPM is applied to a theoretical micro-scale calculation. The result demonstrates its suitability for addressing common aspects inherent to the blowout phenomenon, including uncertainty, dependability between variables (common cause factors and redundant failures), and dynamism due to planned or unplanned operational changes in systems, drilling parameters and current conditions of RIF. Limitations of the APPM are also identified, and suggestions are made for future work on this topic.