Prediction of aircraft safety incidents using Bayesian inference and hierarchical structures

This research adopts an innovative statistical approach involving the use of Bayesian inference and Hierarchical structures to develop statistical estimation and prediction models with different complexities and objectives. The study develops and analyses five Bayesian models of increasing difficulty, two basic and three Hierarchical models, which allows us to explore safety incident data, efficiently identify anomalies, assess the level of risk, define an objective framework for comparing air carriers, and finally predict and anticipate incidents.