Improving the risk assessments of critical operations to better reflect uncertainties and the unforeseen

In this paper we address risk assessments of critical operations and in particular the safe job analysis, the main aim being to improve these risk assessments by better reflecting uncertainties and the unforeseen. The work is based on the conviction that current practice does not adequately deal with potential surprises and the knowledge dimension of risk. An adjusted risk assessment approach is presented and illustrated using an example from the oil and gas industry. Several incidents in the oil and gas industry in recent years have shown a lack of proper understanding of risk, and the present paper is to be seen as a contribution to the work of improving the understanding of risk on the part of the personnel involved in critical operations.