Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
---|---|---|---|---|
7195075 | Reliability Engineering & System Safety | 2018 | 27 Pages |
Abstract
Traffic accidents may pose a high risk with respect to human travel safety. In order to improve the safety of travelling, an insight into the traffic accidents is needed. This requires a practical and specifically approach when it comes to modelling for traffic accidents. This paper presents a traffic accident model based on self-exciting processes, which describes the specific phenomena and problems in traffic accidents. The research focuses on the stationary condition, reliability and safety analysis of the traffic network in a certain city or the traffic situation in a certain area. First, a traffic accident model based on self-exciting processes is developed, and secondly, the stationary condition of the model is studied, which is used to analyze the reliability and safety of the traffic network in a certain city or the traffic situation in a certain area. In addition, the probability and related characteristics for traffic process are evaluated by simulation methods. The traffic accident model is developed with the use of self-exciting processes. Maximum Likelihood Estimate (MLE) is used for the parameter estimations of the traffic accident model. Finally, a numerical example is presented, in which the traffic accident model developed is applied to the simulation data.
Related Topics
Physical Sciences and Engineering
Engineering
Mechanical Engineering
Authors
Li Zhongping, Cui Lirong, Chen Jianhui,