Time-dependent risk modeling of accidental events and responses in process industries

This Paper presents a method whereby the time-dependent events and the time-dependent probability of fatality are modeled by means of the direct Monte Carlo simulation method. Different accident scenarios are modeled and discussed resulting from event trees analysis. Using the simulation method the modeled scenarios change with relevant probabilities at defined times to configurations with appropriate probabilities of fatalities. Simple sensitivity analysis in dependency on most relevant events is also performed. The Paper uses a realistic example from the offshore industry for which the probability of fatality is quantified by the use of simulation method.