The probabilistic life time prediction model of oil pipeline due to local corrosion crack

A four-stage probabilistic damage model is proposed basis of cross-scale damage processes to deal with the local corrosion crack of oil pipeline. At first, some key parameters for life time prediction were determined; then the probabilistic damage model is formulated and numerically calculated by using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). Furthermore, the model is used to deal with an example in order to check its validity. The results show that the life-span of this pipeline is nearly 20.55 years, and the pipe wall thickness, operating pressure difference and corrosion electric current density are the three key parameters to determine the span-life of this pipeline; the longest examination and repair period should be less than 4.71 years for safety when the surface crack length of 10 mm can be detected reliably.