Constructing and Index to Measure the Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change in Sri Lanka

Climate change is considered as the major threat to the human beings in the future. Vulnerability to the climate change refers to the potential of a system to be harmed by an external threat and it is a function of exposure, sensitivity to impacts and the ability or lack of ability to cope or adapt. Adaptive capacity (AC) represents the ability of a region or community to cope with and thrive in the face of change. In this context, an attempt has been made to construct indexes to measure the adaptive capacity using five assets as economic, social, human, physical and natural. The data were obtained from Sri Lanka Household and Expenditure Survey covering 25000 households. One purpose of this research is to demonstrate a method of aggregating adaptive capacity indicators that result in a composite index. Indicators of Adaptive capacity are developed and a Weighted Principal Components Analysis (WPCA) is performed on assets. Households, who are dominantly dependent upon several resources, have always been adjusting their livelihood against the vagaries of climate. Multiple Factor Analysis for Mixed Data (FAMD) is used to handle the household data. As output shown in the analysis that the positive relationship between adaptive capacity and social assets are clearly followed by economic assets and physical assets, but human assets have been attributed a negative association. Batticaloa, Jaffna, Ampara, Moneragala, Trincomalee, Vavuniya and Puttlam districts had lower adaptive capacity, along with Colombo and Gampaha had a higher level of adaptive capacity. Furthermore, inter-household analysis of AC indicate that the poor households with less recourses are risky anywhere, irrespective of where they are located. Policy measures and development efforts should be focused towards improving the AC of the less owners of the assets.