Who leaves and when? Selective outmigration of immigrants from Germany

Return migration is a major element of international migration flows. The objective of this paper is to provide new micro-data-based evidence on the structural pattern of return migration. We use data from the German Socio-Economic Panel and employ a flexible semiparametric model, which allows us to estimate bivariate interaction effects. This enables us to analyze variation in emigration behavior over the life cycle. For the majority of migrants, we find that return migration is highly likely during the transition into retirement, implying that migrants spend their savings and pensions in their home country. For labor migrants, return migration intensifies the skill selection of the original immigration flow. Furthermore, we find a strong influence of family characteristics on return migration. Our analysis demonstrates that outmigration is influenced by economic and non-economic factors and highlights that migrants incorporate the mobility costs of family members into their individual return decisions.