Rural-urban circularity in China: Analysis of longitudinal surveys in Anhui, 1980-2009

Hundreds of millions of migrants from rural China circulate between their home villages and host cities. While existing research tends to focus on the question of permanent settlement in cities, the phenomenon of circularity which has prevailed for decades is not well understood. For example, how often do migrants return, how long do they stay before migrating again, and whether and how these behaviors have changed over time, are seldom studied. Drawing from the longitudinal migration histories of 530 rural migrants from six villages in Anhui Province and using multi-level Poisson regression models, this paper examines how rural-urban circularity has changed since the 1980s. We found that migrants who first left for migrant work in the 2000s spent less time in the home location when they return, compared to those who first left in earlier decades. Male migrants return less frequently than female migrants; and younger migrants return less than older migrants. Migrants who have had high-school education, and who have young children, a spouse, and a high-quality house at the home location tend to return more frequently and spend more time when they return than other migrants. Women's circularity is more sensitive to the number of dependent children and the decade of first out-migration than men; and men's circularity is more sensitive to education level and generation than women. Our findings underscore circularity as a fundamental attribute of rural-urban migration in China, identifies the gender and generational differences in circularity, and highlights the social and household ties that sustain migrants' motivation to return/circulate.